SCC Preview: Edwards the pick to click at Atlanta

And he won't be able to do it this weekend after breaking a bone in his right foot Wednesday in a freak Frisbee accident. But that doesn't mean he can't still win. Doctors have him on crutches, but have assured Carl he'll have no problem pushing the gas pedal flat to the floor on what is his favorite mile-and-a-half track.

In fact, Edwards is the only driver in the top 5 of the Sprint Cup standings who hasn't won a race. That, however, could change when he goes to work this Labor Day weekend on what is his favorite mile-and-a-half track. Edwards is the race's defending champion, and he finished second in the fall event two years ago. In Atlanta's March race this year, he took third, and in his past four outings there, the spring 2008 event was the only one in which he failed to finish in the top three. In that race, Edwards finished 42nd due to a faulty engine. But even in that race, he led 33 laps before heading to the garage.

Plus, in the past four races this season on 1.5-mile tracks, Edwards has three top-10s and two top-5s. He also is fourth in points earned on superspeedways this season with 2,053.

Like Edwards, three other drivers in the top 12 in points have yet to win this season; the others are Ryan Newman, Greg Biffle and Juan Pablo Montoya. Newman, Biffle and Montoya also are winless at Atlanta. Newman's best Atlanta finish came in March 2004, when he placed fifth. Montoya's best Atlanta performance also was a fifth in March 2007. However, both have had good runs on 1.5-mile tracks this season. Montoya has had three top-10s in the past four races. Newman has had top-10s in the past two events, with a sixth-place finish at Chicago and a second at Charlotte. Biffle has produced seven top-10s in 13 starts at Atlanta. His best finish in the past four Atlanta races was fourth in March 2008.

If Edwards expects to break out of his victory slump, he will have to keep Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson, and Jeff Gordon at bay. Busch has always performed well at Atlanta. He won this year's spring race there and pulled out a top-10 in two of the other three. He narrowly missed a top-10 finish in March 2008, finishing 11th. Busch ranks 10th in superspeedway points scored this year with 1,863.

The Hendrick Motorsports Johnson-Gordon tandem is always a threat at Atlanta. Gordon secured all four of his Cup championships at the track where he made his series debut in 1992. Among all active drivers, Gordon possesses the record for the most top-5s (14), the most lead-lap finishes (21), and the most laps led (1,098). He also has scored the most points this season on superspeedways, with 2,289. Gordon has produced top-10s in the past four Atlanta races, with his best finish being second in March. The 38-year-old's performance the past four times he has raced at 1.5-mile tracks this season also has been stellar. He has finished outside the top-10 only once in the past four (14th at Charlotte), but placed in the top two in the other three. Gordon won at Texas and finished second at Atlanta and Chicago.

Johnson traditionally has performed better in Atlanta's fall race than in the spring. In Atlanta's past two fall races, Johnson placed second in 2008 and won the race in 2007. Like teammate Gordon, Johnson has performed well in the past four outings on the 1.5-mile tracks, posting top-10s in three of the four races. His best finish was second at Texas, and his only finish outside the top 10 was 13th at Charlotte. Johnson is third in superspeedway points earned this year with 2,172.

A couple of other drivers who bear watching are Kasey Kahne and Brian Vickers. Kahne is fifth in superspeedway points earned this year with 1,991. He also has produced top-10s in three of the season's past four events at 1.5-mile tracks. In the past four Atlanta races, Kahne has recorded top-10s in two of them, including a seventh-place finish there in March and a ninth in October 2007.

Even though Vickers is 14th in points, he is still within striking distance of the top-12, and he has performed well on the superspeedways this year, having earned 1,927 points, the ninth most. Vickers also has top-10s in three of the past four Atlanta races, with his best being a fifth-place finish there in March. Vickers also has top-10s in three of the four events on 1.5-mile tracks this season, including two fifth-place runs at Atlanta and Charlotte.

If you're looking for a driver with a low cap number who could come up big Sunday night, how about David Ragan, Joey Logano, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kevin Harvick?

It has been quite some time, but Earnhardt Jr. and Harvick have both won at Atlanta. They could wind up getting you a solid top-10 or top-15 finish from moderate prices, which is something you're always looking for in Stock Car Challenge.

Harvick has had a tough season, but he did finish fourth at Atlanta earlier this year and was 12th at Michigan, which shows RCR's big-track program is starting to come back around. Also, with the announcement this week that he and Richard Childress have buried the hatchet and will be together next season, there's one less distraction for Harvick to deal with.

Then there's Dale Jr., who won in March 2004 at Atlanta. We all know how much he has stumbled this season, but in the past three races at the Georgia track, he has recorded a top-5, and his worst finish was 11th. Plus, he has put together two straight top-10 runs, with a third at Michigan and a ninth-place finish at Bristol.

As for Logano, he has just one Cup race at Atlanta under his belt, and that didn't go well; he finished 30th. That, however, was back when he was lost while trying to come to grips with the Sprint Cup COT. There's no question his learning curve has turned the corner in the second half of the season, and his seventh-place run at Michigan proves it.

Ragan also might be worth the risk. He has had a terrible 2009 Cup campaign, but he finished eighth in this race a year ago, and is coming off a confidence-boosting second Nationwide Series win this season when he beat teammate Carl Edwards at Bristol.

Big bucks (SCC Value 22.0 and up)

Tony Stewart (25.1) and Jimmie Johnson (24.2) are likely to have strong runs, but the best buys in this group could be Jeff Gordon (23.9) and Carl Edwards (22.9), who I think has a great shot to win his first race in 2009 this weekend. Kurt Busch (22.8) is probably a take-it-to-the-bank top-10 option, and Denny Hamlin (23.5) might also be. If you need another hitter to give you, at least, a top-10, and you need to go lower on the dollars, Ryan Newman (22.3), Juan Pablo Montoya (22.1) and Matt Kenseth (22.1) might fit the bill.

Serious coin (SCC Value 18.0 to 22.0)

In the 12 drivers in this category, I like Kyle Busch (21.8) and Mark Martin (21.9) the best. Kasey Kahne (21.9) and Brian Vickers (21.8) should have strong runs, too. The sleeper in the group could very well be Dale Earnhardt Jr. (18.2). He has had two straight top-10 runs, and Atlanta is one of his favorite tracks. Clint Bowyer (16.0) has finished sixth at Atlanta four times in the past five races but really hasn't done much on the 1.5-mile tracks this year, so he might be a little hard to count on. Given the way he's been running lately, Marcos Ambrose (19.4) might be worth a look, and the same can be said for Jamie McMurray (18.1) and Joey Logano (18.2).

Budget boys (SCC Value 13.0 to 18.0)

It could get a little dicey, but you should be able to find a little help this week from a "budget boy" or two. Martin Truex, Jr. (17.9) and Kevin Harvick (17.4) should be top of mind. A.J. Allmendinger (17.0) should be worthy of consideration. David Ragan (16.5) is capable of knocking out a top-10 run on any given weekend, especially at Atlanta, but can he do it for the first time since the season-opening Daytona 500, when he finished sixth? Sam Hornish Jr. (15.7) has had disastrous finishes at Watkins Glen and Bristol lately. Yet in the past two big-track races, he finished fourth at Pocono and fifth at Michigan.

Debit … not credit

In the top group, if you don't have Tony Stewart locked in at a low price, you can't build a strong team around him because he's too expensive to buy now. … Greg Biffle (22.4) is a "tweener" for me this week. I like Stewart, Johnson, Gordon, and Edwards just above him and would prefer Kyle Busch, Martin, Newman, Montoya, or Vickers just below. … In the "serious coin" category, Jeff Burton (19.7) is too risky to me, given how poorly RCR has run on this type of track this year.

Guru Garrow's gang

Coming off my 766-point performance at Bristol, my third 730-plus performance in the past four races, I am leaning toward going with Kyle Busch, Mark Martin, and Dale Jr. this week. I traded, however, Denny Hamlin for Carl Edwards and David Stremme for Bill Elliott. Editor's note: Elliott has withdrawn from Sunday's race due to injury; he'll be replaced by David Gilliland.

Mark Garrow covers fantasy racing for ESPN.com.